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So you need to put together a schedule, but are having trouble getting estimates from your team?\u00a0 Believe it or not, that’s good news!\u00a0<\/p>\nSo you need to put together a schedule, but are having trouble getting estimates from your team?\u00a0 Believe it or not, that’s good news!\u00a0<\/p>\n
Well, not great news: great news would be quick, accurate estimates, honed by years of experience and factoring in a reasonable amount of risk.\u00a0<\/p>\n
But it’s not bad news, either.\u00a0 Bad news would be estimates that sound good initially, but don’t factor in risk and uncertainty.\u00a0 Because projects almost never go perfectly, those estimates rarely hit the mark.<\/p>\n
So why is it good news?\u00a0 If a task owner is having trouble committing, he takes his commitment seriously, and doesn’t want to give you a date he can’t meet.\u00a0 Once he does give a date, he’ll do his utmost to meet it.\u00a0 And that’s good news!\u00a0<\/p>\n
So, how do you help your task owners come up with estimates?\u00a0<\/p>\n
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The roadblock here is probably uncertainty: too much is unknown for the task owner to feel confident he can give an accurate estimate.\u00a0 Here’s a process to deal with this type of uncertainty:<\/p>\n
1. How specific do your dates need to be?<\/p>\n
What sort of a schedule do you need at this point in the project?\u00a0 Do you need a detailed schedule, or is a back of the envelope schedule with a high level target timeframe what’s called for?<\/p>\n
If you’re looking for a high level schedule, give your task owner a unit of time to work with.\u00a0 He may have been struggling to estimate number of days for detailed tasks, when you just need number of weeks for high level modules.<\/p>\n
For some task owners, this is enough to get over the hurdle.\u00a0 Others feel an accurate estimate must be derived from the bottom up.\u00a0 If so, move on to steps 2 and 3 to take advantage of\u00a0techniques derived from Decision Analysis.<\/p>\n
2. Is it bigger than a breadbox?<\/p>\n
If the task owner is more comfortable estimating each task, that’s OK.\u00a0 If he doesn’t have enough information to estimate confidently, bound the time required using Ideal, Likely, and Worst Case scenarios.\u00a0 Here’s how to do it. <\/strong><\/p>\n For each task, start with a wildly unlikely high estimate (e.g., “Could it take a year?”).\u00a0 Pick something where the task owner can confidently tell you, “Of course not!”\u00a0 Then narrow in.\u00a0 Could it take 3 months?\u00a0 Could it take 1 month?\u00a0 Note where they start to get uncomfortable.\u00a0 That’s your Worst Case.<\/p>\n Now, start with the wildly hopeful (e.g., “Any chance you might finish in a day?), and increase from there.\u00a0 Note where they start acknowledging there’s some possibility.\u00a0 That’s your Ideal.<\/p>\n With the Ideal and Worst Case in front of you, ask the task owner whether they believe the likely scenario to be closer to the ideal or worst case.\u00a0 Triangulate to get a reasonably “Likely” guesstimate.<\/p>\n 3. Determine where to focus<\/p>\n Do a back of the envelope schedule with your Likely estimates.\u00a0 Where’s your critical path?\u00a0 Find the critical path tasks with wide estimate ranges.\u00a0 These are your high risk, make or break tasks.\u00a0<\/p>\n Go back to the task owner and ask if they could narrow down the estimate if they had time to research.\u00a0 While you’re at it, ask them if there are other critical tasks you may have missed, but need to know more about.\u00a0 Jointly decide on a research plan to reduce the uncertainty (thus also reducing your project risk!) and refine the estimates.<\/p>\n You’re off to a great start!\u00a0 You now have a high level schedule you can communicate, you’re on your way toward a more detailed schedule, and you have begun to reduce some project risk.\u00a0 See, isn’t that good news?<\/p>\n Would you like help addressing situations like this to deliver projects more effectively?\u00a0 If so, let’s talk<\/a>.<\/p>\n Best Wishes,<\/p>\n