{"id":4671,"date":"2010-07-29T13:28:54","date_gmt":"2010-07-29T20:28:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/?p=4671"},"modified":"2010-08-02T09:31:37","modified_gmt":"2010-08-02T16:31:37","slug":"90","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/?p=4671","title":{"rendered":"90%?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Project management?\u00a0 That&#8217;s just a lot of useless overhead!&#8221; \u00a0 I remember hearing variations of this a lot years ago.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t hear this much anymore (due at least in some part to the good work at PMI), but I have been seeing something of a variation.<\/p>\n<p>Working with some engineering teams at some big companies, I&#8217;ve had conversations with engineers go something like this: &#8220;Why do our projects go so much slower here?\u00a0 When we were a startup things seemed to go much faster &#8212; and we didn&#8217;t even use project management!&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Upon digging a bit deeper, it turns out that there are a few things to consider.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the slowness was a perception due to having more formal  procedures (and the documentation surrounding those procedures).\u00a0\u00a0 Some  of the slowness was due to pretty bad meeting management &#8212; long periods  in meetings where nothing pertinent to most of the participants was  going on.\u00a0 Some of these meeting were &#8220;needed&#8221; because so many different groups of people were involved.<\/p>\n<p>Some of the &#8220;slowness&#8221; is really due to the fact that the big company project is often creating a product that is more &#8220;polished.&#8221;\u00a0 The engineers would admit that in the &#8220;old&#8221; days they would celebrate success with a product not quite ready for commercial release.<\/p>\n<p>So, some of this &#8220;slowness&#8221; is about some of the things that come with being bigger.\u00a0 We can talk about ways some innovative organizations overcome these issues some other time.<\/p>\n<p>Looking at this big company &#8220;friction&#8221; or overhead still did not seem to account for this slowdown.\u00a0 Could it be that project management really is an insidious overhead?\u00a0\u00a0 Well, all of us can probably remember a few cases of project management gone wrong &#8212; too many meetings, analysis paralysis, inadequate or too elaborate change controls, etc.\u00a0 So, we deal with these items by doing a project management well.<\/p>\n<p>On the other hand, there is something that seems to slow projects down by design &#8212; schedules.<\/p>\n<p>How can that be? \u00a0 Let&#8217;s start with those unrealistic schedule first.\u00a0 You know, the ones that aren&#8217;t really set through a rational process of estimation, but rather a target meant to &#8220;push&#8221; people.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t think we need to dwell on this too much &#8212; we end up spending a great deal of effort changing and blaming rather than doing the value adding tasks.<\/p>\n<p>How about those realistic schedules?\u00a0 They are based on rational estimates and good statistics based reasoning.\u00a0 It&#8217;s not uncommon to have a policy of 90% &#8212; that is, give me an estimate with a 90% probability of being met.\u00a0 This sounds pretty good, yes?<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4680\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4680\" style=\"width: 288px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/svapm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/s11.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4680 \" src=\"https:\/\/svapm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/s11.png\" alt=\"scenario 1\" width=\"288\" height=\"80\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4680\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">schedule scenario 1<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Let&#8217;s use this as an example.\u00a0 A = 12 days, B = 14, C = 13, where each estimate is at\u00a0 90%.<br \/>\nSo, the project = 39 days.\u00a0 Can we say that we have a reliable schedule?\u00a0 Maybe.<br \/>\n.<br \/>\n.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4681\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4681\" style=\"width: 288px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/svapm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/s2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4681\" src=\"https:\/\/svapm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/s2.png\" alt=\"scenario 2\" width=\"288\" height=\"80\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4681\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">schedule scenario 2<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>One way to look at this is that the 90% is like adding a &#8220;buffer&#8221; &#8212; for example, if each task was a 10 day task at\u00a0 50%, we add buffer until we get to 90%.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately, the way a lot of us build a schedule from this estimation, it is only as good as the last task.\u00a0 Our schedule would show that task C starts at the end of day 26 and ends at the end of day 39.\u00a0 If we coordinate based on the schedule, task C will not be able to take advantage of any earlier finishes &#8212; this is especially true if there are different teams used in the different tasks.  So, in many projects, task might be late, but never early (we don&#8217;t even have to get into the psychological impact of &#8220;having more time&#8221;).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_4683\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-4683\" style=\"width: 288px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/svapm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/s3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-4683\" src=\"https:\/\/svapm.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/s3.png\" alt=\"scenario 3\" width=\"288\" height=\"80\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-4683\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">schedule scenario 3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>What about that 50% version?\u00a0 If we use the 10 days each for the tasks, we would get a 30 day project&#8230;\u00a0 a 23% improvement in duration.\u00a0 Of course, we can&#8217;t expect that we will make this schedule.\u00a0 On the other hand, what is more important &#8212; reliability or speed?\u00a0 If we schedule a 39 day project, what are the odds we&#8217;ll finish in 30 days?\u00a0 In my experience, it&#8217;s so close to zero that it is zero&#8230;\u00a0 If we schedule for 30, we may make it very few times, but it&#8217;s not zero.  We at least have a shot!<\/p>\n<p>Next time, we&#8217;ll look at this a bit more &#8212; including some additions AND obstacles with this idea.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&#8220;Project management?\u00a0 That&#8217;s just a lot of useless overhead!&#8221; \u00a0 I remember hearing variations of this a lot years ago.\u00a0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":23,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"give_campaign_id":0,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[2,1],"tags":[202,39,1373,825],"class_list":["post-4671","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-leadership","category-miscellaneous","tag-agile","tag-best-practices","tag-goals","tag-reddit"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4671","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/23"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4671"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4671\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4671"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4671"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/svapm.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4671"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}